A.L. East predictions
I've been perusing through predictions for how various writers think the A.L. East will pan out this year. As a rule of thumb, I think that most writers don't have a damned clue how anything will turn out. How can you? Sports are simply that unpredictable. Take a look at SI's feeble attempts at predicting how the March Madness tournament will go-- they're always dead wrong.
This year, I think the AL East is one of the toughest divisions to predict. You can go ahead and give the Braves their NL East title. I think Oakland should run away with the AL West. The ChiSox, barring no huge pitching injuries, will take the AL Central.
The AL East is a different story though. CNNSI.com's baseball guy, John Donovan, says that the Red Sox should finish THIRD in the AL East, behind New York and Toronto. The Boston Globe's online blogger guy, Eric Wilbur, thinks the Sox will take the division. Let's look a little closer at the new additions to the Yankees, Sox and Blue Jays. (At this point, I'm ruling out Baltimore and Tampa Bay having any shot of contending for the division. Those teams only tend to play the role of spoiler in late September division games).
The Yankees have gone out and solidified what will be hands-down the best lineup in baseball. I have no doubt in my mind that NYY will score runs in record amounts this year (probably challenging many of the 2003 Red Sox records). Here is a potential lineup for the Yankees. I mean, all hatred that I have for that team aside, this is a SICK lineup:
1. Damon (L)
2. Jeter (R)
3. A-Rod (R)
4. Matsui (L)
5. Sheffield (R)
6. Giambi (L)
7. Posada (S)
8. Williams (S)
9. Cano (L)
But what about pitching? Can the Yankees really expect Shawn Chacon and Aaron Small to put numbers up like they did last year post-All Star Break. Aaron Small finished the season on a 10-0 winning streak. You can bet that won't happen this year. Their pitching is old (Johnson, Mussina), and shaky at best (with the exception of Mariano, who is getting pretty old himself). And what about Kyle Farsworth? How is that going to work out? I don't follow the National League well, so the only thing I know about Kyle Farsworth is that I have a friend who is a diehard Cubs fan, and she used to call him Kyle Farsworth-less. As a Sox fan, I can only hope she is right. Farsworth is going to have to eat up the 89.2 innings that ole reliable Tom "Flash" Gordon gave the Yankees.
All of their pitching uncertainties aside, I don't feel there is any way this team doesn't win the AL East.
How about those pesky Blue Jays? Are they actually a legitimate threat to contend for the division title this year? Rob Bradford of The Eagle-Tribune is another writer who believes that the Blue Jays are the second best team in the AL East. The BJ's big 5 acquisitions this offseason were B.J. Ryan, Troy Glaus, Lyle Overbay, Bengie Molina and A.J Burnett. Color me crazy, but I don't think that those 5 guys take the Blue Jays from an 80-win team, to a 95-win team (approximately how many wins it is going to take to win the division). Burnett is an obvious improvement over David Bush. Burnett posted a respectable 3.68 ERA last year. I expect that ERA to shoot up at least a point with the league switch though. Overbay is also coming off a serious decling season, with his VORP down 20 points between '04 and '05.
What the Jays' real success hinges upon is Roy Halladay staying healthy (missed half of last season with broken leg), and Ted Lilly returning to form. A rotation of Halladay-Burnett-Lily-Towers-Chacin looks great on paper-- but predicting how it will really pan out is next to impossible.
In my opinion, the Blue Jays did NOT improve their team enough this season to warrant a second place finish in the division. If you want to look at a gaping hole that could impact them down the stretch and in close division games, their infield is incredibly weak.
Now on to my Sox. Again, it's incredibly difficult to predict this division-- each team is full of question marks. I simply feel like the Jays have more question marks than the Sox, so I predict them to finish below the Red Sox. I'm also quite biased. Last year, the Red Sox were 7-11 against the Blue Jays. This season, we play them 19 times. One thing's for sure: if the Red Sox cannot improve their record against weak teams like Baltimore and Toronto, they are going to find themselves in third place in the division.
However, I think this year's Sox team is actually better than last year's. The only significant loss in the lineup is Johnny Damon (good riddance, Mark Bellhorn). Filling Damon's hole as the leadoff batter will be tough. But the Sox have improved defensively with Crisp in CF. Their defense is actually substantially better this year, and I'm a firm believer that defense is key to winning championships (see the 2004 Sox, and what an impact defensive-minded players like OCab and Mientkiewicz had). The Sox currently have 7 starting pitchers-- Schilling, Wakefield, Wells, Clement, Arroyo, Pabelbon, and new arrival Josh Beckett. This probably won't be the case on Opening Day, as Wells still wants out, and rumors are flying all over the place that the Sox want to part with Clement. Their bullpen should be excellent, and I have no doubt that Keith Foulke will rebound from a disastrous 2005. He was, in fact, the first player to report to Spring Training yesterday.
The Sox lineup is going to hit-- how can a lineup with David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez not score 800 runs?
Just the fact that there are less question marks in that team makes me believe that they will finish second in the division, with the Blue Jays getting squeezed out of a playoff spot, once again. Life is tough playing in arguably the best division in baseball.
This year, I think the AL East is one of the toughest divisions to predict. You can go ahead and give the Braves their NL East title. I think Oakland should run away with the AL West. The ChiSox, barring no huge pitching injuries, will take the AL Central.
The AL East is a different story though. CNNSI.com's baseball guy, John Donovan, says that the Red Sox should finish THIRD in the AL East, behind New York and Toronto. The Boston Globe's online blogger guy, Eric Wilbur, thinks the Sox will take the division. Let's look a little closer at the new additions to the Yankees, Sox and Blue Jays. (At this point, I'm ruling out Baltimore and Tampa Bay having any shot of contending for the division. Those teams only tend to play the role of spoiler in late September division games).
The Yankees have gone out and solidified what will be hands-down the best lineup in baseball. I have no doubt in my mind that NYY will score runs in record amounts this year (probably challenging many of the 2003 Red Sox records). Here is a potential lineup for the Yankees. I mean, all hatred that I have for that team aside, this is a SICK lineup:
1. Damon (L)
2. Jeter (R)
3. A-Rod (R)
4. Matsui (L)
5. Sheffield (R)
6. Giambi (L)
7. Posada (S)
8. Williams (S)
9. Cano (L)
But what about pitching? Can the Yankees really expect Shawn Chacon and Aaron Small to put numbers up like they did last year post-All Star Break. Aaron Small finished the season on a 10-0 winning streak. You can bet that won't happen this year. Their pitching is old (Johnson, Mussina), and shaky at best (with the exception of Mariano, who is getting pretty old himself). And what about Kyle Farsworth? How is that going to work out? I don't follow the National League well, so the only thing I know about Kyle Farsworth is that I have a friend who is a diehard Cubs fan, and she used to call him Kyle Farsworth-less. As a Sox fan, I can only hope she is right. Farsworth is going to have to eat up the 89.2 innings that ole reliable Tom "Flash" Gordon gave the Yankees.
All of their pitching uncertainties aside, I don't feel there is any way this team doesn't win the AL East.
How about those pesky Blue Jays? Are they actually a legitimate threat to contend for the division title this year? Rob Bradford of The Eagle-Tribune is another writer who believes that the Blue Jays are the second best team in the AL East. The BJ's big 5 acquisitions this offseason were B.J. Ryan, Troy Glaus, Lyle Overbay, Bengie Molina and A.J Burnett. Color me crazy, but I don't think that those 5 guys take the Blue Jays from an 80-win team, to a 95-win team (approximately how many wins it is going to take to win the division). Burnett is an obvious improvement over David Bush. Burnett posted a respectable 3.68 ERA last year. I expect that ERA to shoot up at least a point with the league switch though. Overbay is also coming off a serious decling season, with his VORP down 20 points between '04 and '05.
What the Jays' real success hinges upon is Roy Halladay staying healthy (missed half of last season with broken leg), and Ted Lilly returning to form. A rotation of Halladay-Burnett-Lily-Towers-Chacin looks great on paper-- but predicting how it will really pan out is next to impossible.
In my opinion, the Blue Jays did NOT improve their team enough this season to warrant a second place finish in the division. If you want to look at a gaping hole that could impact them down the stretch and in close division games, their infield is incredibly weak.
Now on to my Sox. Again, it's incredibly difficult to predict this division-- each team is full of question marks. I simply feel like the Jays have more question marks than the Sox, so I predict them to finish below the Red Sox. I'm also quite biased. Last year, the Red Sox were 7-11 against the Blue Jays. This season, we play them 19 times. One thing's for sure: if the Red Sox cannot improve their record against weak teams like Baltimore and Toronto, they are going to find themselves in third place in the division.
However, I think this year's Sox team is actually better than last year's. The only significant loss in the lineup is Johnny Damon (good riddance, Mark Bellhorn). Filling Damon's hole as the leadoff batter will be tough. But the Sox have improved defensively with Crisp in CF. Their defense is actually substantially better this year, and I'm a firm believer that defense is key to winning championships (see the 2004 Sox, and what an impact defensive-minded players like OCab and Mientkiewicz had). The Sox currently have 7 starting pitchers-- Schilling, Wakefield, Wells, Clement, Arroyo, Pabelbon, and new arrival Josh Beckett. This probably won't be the case on Opening Day, as Wells still wants out, and rumors are flying all over the place that the Sox want to part with Clement. Their bullpen should be excellent, and I have no doubt that Keith Foulke will rebound from a disastrous 2005. He was, in fact, the first player to report to Spring Training yesterday.
The Sox lineup is going to hit-- how can a lineup with David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez not score 800 runs?
Just the fact that there are less question marks in that team makes me believe that they will finish second in the division, with the Blue Jays getting squeezed out of a playoff spot, once again. Life is tough playing in arguably the best division in baseball.
posted by Jennifer at 2:11 PM
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